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The Seattle Seahawks rely heavily on the run game in their offensive game plan; much more so than the Denver Broncos. So it stands to reason that the offensive success that Seattle has in their Super Bowl 48 matchup will coincide with the success that Marshawn Lynch is able to have on the Broncos defense.
Lynch is perceived to be a critical piece to the puzzle for the Seahawks. You don’t have to look and further than 2014 Super Bowl MVP betting lines which set Lynch third behind only the two quarterbacks (Peyton Manning & Russell Wilson) in the game. And once the odds get past Lynch there is a large disparity in the odds.
That means that Lynch could prove to be the reason that underdog Seattle would get a win at MetLife Stadium this Sunday.
Outside of the game lines + MVP odds, Bovada Sportsbook has formed more than a dozen player prop betting odds for Lynch vs. the Broncos in Super Bowl 48. Among the betting lines include Lynch’s rushing total, touchdown total, longest rush, receiving yards + more.
Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards this season and 12 touchdowns to lead the Seahawks. But it’s his style of running that gets the most attention. The nicknames ‘the beast’ and ‘beastmode’ aren’t given out to every player.
But in Denver’s defense, Lynch won’t find easy going. The Broncos might have ranked 27th against the pass this season, but they were a top-10 defense against the run (8th), surrendering just 101.6 yards per game.
Bovada has set Lynch’s rushing total for Super Bowl 48 at 90.5 yards. Looking at the two payout options though it’s clear that the sportsbook favors the over. A wager on the over total (91 yards +) would profit -135 ($1.35 wins $1). On the other side of the line at payout on the under (90 yards or less) sits at +105 ($1 wins $1.05).
Lynch gets the ball plenty of times during a game. Denver’s defense can expect to see a heavy dose early and often. A betting line on Lynch’s total carries for the 2014 Super Bowl is available as well. He had 301 carries during the regular season. Divide that total over 16 games and it’s roughly 19 carries per game. The number here though is 21.5, slightly above average. If Lynch carries the ball 22 times or more than a wager on the over total wins (-115). If he gets it 21 times or less than the under total wins (-115). The payouts are equal.
The key will be the number of times Lynch gets into the end zone. As mentioned earlier, he scored 12 touchdowns this season. A betting line formed asks if Lynch will score a touchdown against Denver. Odds favor that he will, siting at -175. Those who do not believe Lynch will score can bet that line as well, paying out +145.
With Seattle’s quarterback just in his second season, head coach Pete Carroll might want to limit the pressure at the beginning of the game. This is where Lynch has the chance to shine early. But over the course of his career, Lynch has been most effective in the second half. It’s not easy trying to bring Lynch down over and over again. He has the potential to wear down the front-seven for the Broncos.
It should be fun to watch how this matchup turns out.
Marshawn Lynch Betting Odds For SB XLVIII – (found 1/29/2014)
|Super Bowl 48 – Marshawn Lynch Props|
|Super Bowl MVP|
|Over/Under Total Rushing Yards – Game|
|Exact Range Total Rushing Yards – Game|
|Over/Under Total Rushing Attempts – Game|
|Over/Under Total Rushing Yards – First Attempt|
|Over/Under Longest Rush – Game|
|Over/Under Total Receiving Yards – Game|
|Over/Under Total Receptions – Game|
|Over/Under Total Yards – First Reception|
|Over/Under Total Yards – Longest Reception|
|To Score First TD – Game|
|To Score First TD – Seattle|
|To Score Last TD – Game|
|To Score TD – Game|
|To Score TD – First Half|
|To Record First Reception – Seattle|
|To Record First Reception – Game|
|Most Rushing Yards – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|Most Rushing Attempts – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|First TD – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|Longest Rush – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|Most Receptions – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|Most Receiving Yards – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|First Reception – Lynch vs. Moreno|
|Higher – Boston Celtics vs. Lynch|
More Super Bowl XLVIII Betting Lines