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This isn’t completely odds related, but could have major implications on betting strategies going forward. The New Orleans Saints are going to be a fickle fruit in 2012, not just because of all the suspensions and calamity going on right now. Lost in the bounty scandal is the fact that Chase Daniel is the no. 1 quarterback on the team’s depth chart right now. Drew Brees is still holding out on signing his franchise tender and is not participating with the team. With him out, the Saints’ Super Bowl odds for this year will take a dramatic nose dive.
They haven’t plummeted yet because there’s still plenty of time to get a deal done. But oddsmakers aren’t backing them with overwhelming support either, labeling their over/under projections at around nine games. If Daniels is the starter, or anyone else for that matter, New Orleans hopes for the division, much less the Super Bowl, are in jeopardy.
Bovada’s 2013 Super Bowl Futures has the Saints at 18/1 right now.
This is not just buzz creation. Brees actually has a legitimate shot at holding out and letting the July 16 deadline pass. He’s still upset about being designated with the franchise tag instead of getting a long term deal done and it’s hard to blame him after setting the NFL record with 5,476 yards last season and being instrumental in back-to-back division titles. And a recent story by ProFootballTalk indicates that Brees might have added incentive to hold out.
According to the report, Brees might be entitled to 120-percent of his 2012 tender (over $16 million) if he waits to sign until 2013. And, because of the contract language, New Orleans’ compensation if another team steals him next off-season may drop to a first and third rounder, which may be well worth it.
I’m not a huge fan of projecting teams this far ahead of the season as it is, but I’m staying away from the Saints until at least his contract gets settled.